Foreclosures in 2011: RealtyTrac Reports Full Year Data

David Blitzer

Chairman of the Index Committee

S&P Indices

January 12 - 11:16 am

Comments: 0

Nationally in 2011 1.9 million homes were in some stage of the foreclosure process representing 1.45% of the homes in the US — the lowest percentage in four years. The good news is that this is down by about a third from 2010. In 2010 2.23% of homes were in foreclosure compared to 2.21% in 2009 and 1.84% in 2008. The full report from RealtyTrac is on the web. State by state data show a large range of results. Ranked by the percentage of homes in foreclosure the top few states should be no surprise to followers of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices — numbers one, two and three are Nevada, Arizona and California; Michigan is sixth and Florida is seventh. The state with the smallest percentage of homes in foreclosure is North Dakota at 0.03% — a mere 92 homes. Among states that include cities covered by S&P/Case-Shiller, the smallest percentage of homes in foreclosure is found in New York at 0.33%.

California, being the largest state by population also had the most homes in foreclosure with 428 thousand. Close behind were some less populous states where the housing bust is a major issue. These include Florida with 182 thousand homes, Arizona with 114 thousand and Georgia with 110 thousand homes in foreclosure. Foreclosure rates are declined nationally from 2010 to 2011, and only seven states showed increasing foreclosures.

Ten States Account for 68% of Homes In Foreclosure

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Thursday, December 8, 2011

Robert Shiller: Home Prices Back at 2003 Levels, Could Overshoot to Downside (Charts, Video)

Robert Shiller, Yale professor and co-founder of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, was featured on Reuters TV on 11/30/2011 after the September housing data was released. Guess what people, "Detroit has now recorded three consecutive months of positive annual rates." Below are charts from the S&P/Case-Shiller press release.

"Home Prices Weaken as the Third Quarter of 2011 Ends According to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices

New York, November 29, 2011 – Data through September 2011, released today by S&P Indices for its S&P/Case-Shiller

Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices, show that nationally home prices did not register a significant change in the third quarter of 2011, with the U.S. National Home Price Index up by only 0.1% from its second quarter level. The national index posted an annual decline of 3.9%, an improvement over the 5.8% decline posted in the second quarter. Nationally, home prices are back to their first quarter of 2003 levels.

As of September 2011, the annual rate of change in 14 of the 20 MSAs and both Composites, covered by S&P/Case Shiller Home Price Indices, improved versus August. Atlanta, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Seattle and Tampa recorded lower annual declines in September compared to August. Detroit and Washington DC were the only two MSAs to post positive annual rates of +3.7% and +1.0% respectively. Detroit has now recorded three consecutive months of positive annual rates."

Source: S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index Press Release

During the Reuters TV interview, Shiller said "this was definitely a surprise on the downside, and "I don't see any reason to predict a recovery now". He thinks that high unemployment is weighing on the housing market right now, and is worried that home prices could overshoot to the downside.

"At best we can hope it that it doesn't overshoot. We are back down to normal levels for home prices, but after a crisis they could overshoot and become cheap overall."